Yesterday I predicted the C-USA men’s basketball final standings. One day later my prediction already has a hole. With East Carolina’s win over UTEP everything has been thrown into flux, including Marshall’s chance of finishing in the top 4.
If Marshall wins out and finishes with a 10 - 6 C-USA record MU might get a bye in the conference tournament. The Herd needs help to make it happen.
First, Southern Mississippi can only win one more game. If the Golden Eagles only win one game, (@Central Florida, vs.UAB, @Tulsa) both MU and USM will finish with identical league records (10-6). If two teams are tied in conference and split their head-to-head match ups the tiebreaker is determined by each teams record against C-USA’s regular season champion. To make this all work Memphis would be champion with a 12 – 4 record. Marshall split it’s season series with Memphis while USM lost twice to the Tigers. Therefore, Marshall would get the tiebreaker.
Next, Marshall needs UTEP to finish no better than 10 – 6. This is all based on Marshall winning out so MU controls its own destiny with the Miners. By beating UTEP Marshall would hold any tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical league marks.
I still think Tulsa will win their remaining C-USA games and finish at 11 – 5, but if they stumble against Tulane or Rice it would help Marshall. The Herd holds a tiebreaker over Tulsa with last nights victory if both teams end up at 10 – 6.
In fact, if Southern Miss were to beat Tulsa while losing to UAB and UCF, Marshall would get the three seed. In that scenario Memphis finishes first at 12 – 4, UAB second at 11 – 5, Marshall would take third at 10 - 6, while Tulsa, USM, and UTEP go to a tiebreaker for the four spot.
Lots of possibilities but Herd fans should pay close attention to Southern Mississippi, UTEP, and Tulsa down the stretch.
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