Marshall Basketball: Should Marshall be on the NCAA Tournament Bubble?

All over Herd country Marshall fans are speculating on MU’s post season destination. While many are following NIT projections I ask you this, should Marshall be on the NCAA tournament bubble?

I know what you are thinking, crazy blogger/ fan boy with thoughts of an NCAA bid dancing in his head. I understand that but lets take a look at schools most NCAA tournament pundits think are on the bubble. They are:

Gonzaga (20-9)
Butler (20-9)
Boston College (17-11)
Memphis (21-8)
Colorado (17-11)
Baylor (17-10)
Clemson (19-9)
Maryland (18-11)
Minnesota (17-11)
Michigan (17-12)
Penn State (15-12)
Southern Mississippi(18-7)
Texas-El Paso (20-8)
Colorado State (17-10)
Alabama (19-9)
UAB (20 – 7)

A quick look at that list revels that Marshall has already beat Memphis and Southern Miss. Yes, they have also beat Marshall but it shows MU does stack up with some other bubble teams. For Marshall to even be considered on the bubble they have to beat UTEP, another team listed above, tomorrow night.

Lets take a blind test. I am going to list three schools NCAA tournament criteria below without revealing who they are. One will be Marshall, one will be a bubble team from a BCS conference, and the other will be a mid-major bubble team. In my opinion the two teams listed who are not Marshall make the strongest case to make the Big Dance.

Out of the three teams below which belongs in the NCAA Tournament?

*Note that overall record only reflects games against division 1 competition.

Team A
Record: 18 – 9
RPI: 55
SOS: 78 (74 in Conference)
Vs. Top 25: 1-1
Vs. Top 50: 3-5
Vs. Top 100: 5-7
Best Wins: WVU(22), Memphis(33), Southern Miss(40)
Worst Losses: Chattanooga(192),ECU(118)
Road / Neutral Court: 7 - 6

Team B
Record: 21 – 9
RPI: 67
SOS: 98 (210 in Conference)
Vs. Top 25: 1-3
Vs. Top 50: 2-6
Vs. Top 100: 7-7
Best Wins: Xavier(23), St. Mary’s(49), Marquette(52)
Worst Losses: San Francisco(119), Santa Clara(165)
Road / Neutral Court: 7-5

Team C
Record: 19-9
RPI: 68
SOS: 97 (80 in Conference)
Vs. Top 25: 0-2
Vs. Top 50: 2-4
Vs. Top 100: 7-7
Best Wins: Boston College(47), FSU(48), C of C(75)
Worst Losses: South Carolina(116), Virginia(146)
Road / Neutral Court: 5-7

After a quick look I think you can throw team C out the window. Their RPI is the lowest while also lacking a victory against top 25 (RPI) competetion. That leaves us with teams A and B. I have a hard time picking between the two. The one big difference between A and B is RPI, team A is 12 spots better. With RPI as the only big difference I think team A is our winner.

So who are teams A, B, and C? As you might have guessed Marshall is team A, Gonzaga is team B, and Team C is Clemson.

Still think I am crazy for having Marshall on the NCAA tournament bubble?

I understand why most don’t consider Marshall on the tournament bubble. A quick look at the C-USA standings shows Marshall in 6th place and our conference is not getting six NCAA bids. But, if you peel back the numbers Marshall does stack up.

If Marshall manages to win out and get two victories at the C-USA tournament I think MU will find its self square on the bubble.